Analysis Of Supply And Demand For Alumina

From a global production capacity perspective, alumina production capacity is mainly distributed in countries such as China, Australia, Brazil, India, Russia, Saudi Arabia, and Jamaica. In 2011-2021, the global alumina production capacity increased from 101.53 million tons/year to 168.89 million tons/year, an increase of 67.37 million tons/year, with an average annual growth rate of 5.2%, maintaining a steady growth trend. During the same period, China's alumina production capacity increased from 47.38 million tons per year to 90.38 million tons per year, an increase of 43 million tons per year, with an average annual growth rate of 6.7%. It can be seen that China is the main driving force for the growth of global alumina production capacity. As of the end of 2021, the combined production capacity of China (54%), Australia (16%), Brazil (7%), and India (5%) accounted for over 80% of the global total production capacity. Among them, relying on strong market demand, China has been the world's largest producer and producer of alumina for 15 consecutive years. Australia, Brazil, and Jamaica have become the world's major producers of alumina due to their abundant bauxite resources, low energy costs, and well-developed transportation facilities.
The distribution of domestic alumina production capacity has obvious resource attributes, mainly concentrated in areas with abundant bauxite resources and coastal ports, mainly in Shandong, Shanxi, Guangxi, Henan, and Guizhou. As of the end of 2021, China's alumina production capacity was 90.35 million tons per year, accounting for 53.9% of the global total capacity. The production capacity increased by 1.7 million tons per year compared to the end of the previous year, with a year-on-year growth rate of 1.5%. The newly added production capacity is mainly concentrated in Guangxi and Guizhou regions. From a distribution perspective, the production capacity distribution pattern of China's alumina industry is basically stable, with Shandong's alumina production capacity (30 million tons/year) ranking first, accounting for nearly one-third of the country's total production capacity; Shanxi (23.8 million tons/year), Henan (12.6 million tons/year), and Guangxi (12 million tons/year) also have relatively high proportions, and the alumina production capacity of the four provinces and regions accounts for nearly 87% of the total alumina production capacity in the country. At the end of 2021, China's planned alumina production capacity was approximately 16.2 million tons per year, indicating that alumina production capacity is still in the expansion stage. From the development process of alumina, it can be seen that the production capacity of China's alumina industry is rarely eliminated, and there are occasional shutdowns and idle production capacity, waiting for the market to resume production at an appropriate time, and will not completely exit the production sequence. In 2014, the 1.2 million tons/year alumina production capacity of Chinalco Guizhou Branch was shut down, but in 2015, Guizhou Huajin Aluminum Industry Company resumed production with a capacity of 1.6 million tons/year; In 2022, the first privately-owned alumina plant in China, Nanchuan Pioneer Alumina Plant, with a production capacity of 800000 tons per year, was shut down. At the same time, the Bosai Jiulong Wanbo Alumina Project with a production capacity of 3.6 million tons per year was put into operation, both of which were replacements of old and new production capacity within the system. As the new production capacity of alumina continues to increase, the waiting time for production to resume will also be prolonged. If the cost structure cannot be improved and optimized, the scale of production reduction will increase, and the replacement of old and new production capacity will become the main theme of China's alumina industry in the next few years.

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