Alumina futures hit the daily limit up on Friday night, rising by 7% to 3,086 yuan per ton.
According to news reports, the Guinean government has been revoking some mining licenses in recent days, and the situation has further escalated. According to Mysteel's investigation and verification, the mining authority sent personnel to the mining area on Friday morning to issue a work stoppage order, ordering the suspension of mining equipment in operation and forcing all mining activities to cease. The mining area includes mining companies such as Shunda Mining, with an annual production capacity of about 40 million tons. The recovery time is unknown.
Wu Mingjin, an analyst from Zhonghui Futures, believes that the fundamentals of alumina have not changed much, and there are few highlights in supply and demand. The disturbances at the Guinean mining end have increased market concerns about short-term supply, and the market enthusiasm has rapidly risen. However, based on the experience of similar events in the country in the past, once the relevant demands of the Guinean authorities are met, most problems can be resolved within half a month to a month. Overall, in the short term, it is more cost-effective to cautiously buy on pullbacks near the 3,000 yuan mark for alumina, and caution is needed when chasing the rally. In the medium and long term, the recent view is maintained. As a variety with "more mining disturbances + higher market enthusiasm", and after experiencing consecutive sharp declines in the past, releasing overvaluation risks, alumina deserves more attention from the market in the future.

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