Market Dynamics And Industry Trends Analysis Of Alumina (April 2025)

I. Recent Price Fluctuations and Market Conditions
Futures Market Performance
As of March 24, 2025, the main contract of alumina futures (2505) rose by 1.76%, with a trading volume of 301,100 lots. The position data of the top 20 seats showed a net short position. Meanwhile, domestic spot quotations saw a tender transaction price of 3,360-3,370 yuan per ton in the northern region (delivered to the factory), with traders flowing to electrolytic aluminum plants in the northwest.

Spot price trend
In March 2025, the spot price of alumina continued to operate at a weak level. The transaction price in the northern region dropped to the range of 3,150 to 3,300 yuan per ton, mainly affected by factors such as loose supply and demand, the closure of the export window, and the warehouse receipts in the delivery warehouse exceeding 200,000 tons.

II. Changes in Industry Supply and Demand Dynamics
Increased Supply-side Pressure
According to the financial report of China Aluminium Corporation, domestic alumina production reached 16.87 million tons in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 1.2%. However, it is projected that an additional capacity of 10.3 million tons per year will be added in 2025. Due to the ceiling on electrolytic aluminum production capacity and the slowdown in demand growth, the domestic alumina market may shift from shortage to surplus.

Cost and Capacity Dynamics
Some alumina plants in Shanxi, Shandong and other regions have reduced production due to losses, causing the weekly operating rate of metallurgical grade alumina across the country to drop to 84.04%, with an operating capacity of 88.26 million tons per year. Meanwhile, new capacity additions in Guangxi and North China are progressing steadily, and the long-term supply pressure remains.

III. Corporate Strategy and Project Progress
Chalco's Performance Stands Out
In 2024, Chalco's alumina division achieved a pre-tax profit of 11.685 billion yuan, a staggering increase of 1,012.86% year-on-year, mainly due to increased production and higher prices. However, the primary aluminum division saw a 20% decline in profits due to rising costs.

The major project has been successfully implemented.
The Sixth Engineering Division of China Railway Construction Corporation Limited has won the bid for the 2.4 million-ton/year alumina production and supporting facilities project in Fangchenggang, Guangxi. The contract value is approximately 250 million yuan. This project will rely on the Pingliu Canal to enhance the efficiency of bauxite import and optimize the regional industrial chain layout.

IV. Policy and External Environment Impact
Adjustment of Futures Trading Rules
Starting from March 11, 2025, the Shanghai Futures Exchange will adjust the trading fee for alumina futures to 0.015% and expand the daily price limit to 8% in order to enhance market liquidity.

The development of new energy industries (such as photovoltaic glass and energy storage) boosts the demand for alumina. However, stricter environmental policies drive technological upgrades in the industry, such as increasing the comprehensive utilization rate of red mud to 32.1% for coastal enterprises.

V. International and Export Markets
The overseas alumina price was affected by the disruption in bauxite supply. The FOB price in Vietnam was reported at 395 US dollars per ton (approximately 3,200 RMB per ton). The domestic export window was temporarily closed, but the long-term oversupply situation overseas may intensify market competition.